Gold Steady But Dollar May Weigh

Gold futures are trading steady above $1375 an ounce in the Asia electronic session today, however the metal may face a resistance as the dollar strengthened.
Gold for December delivery is trading up $5.70 to $1,376.5 an ounce, extending its yesterday’s gains on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, today it jumped to as high as $1379 an ounce.
Yesterday, the gold prices rose to the highest levels of the day after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 336,000 last week. Jobless claims for the preceding week were revised up to a gain of 323,000, from a previously reported 320,000.
The minutes of the central bank’s July meeting showed that Fed officials were "broadly comfortable" with plans to scale back the bank’s USD85 billion-a-month stimulus program. However, policymakers remain divided over the timing of possible reduction, with almost all committee members agreeing that a change in the asset purchase program was not yet appropriate.
The minutes described recent U.S. economic data as “mixed”, indicating that plans to taper could be pushed back if the economy was to weaken. The central bank is scheduled to meet September 17-18 to review the economy and assess policy.
The Kansas City Federal Reserve hosts an annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyo., which is due to kick off Friday. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke won’t be attending, markets will watch the proceeding for any further clues to the policy outlook.
MCX October gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 31220 levels with resistance near Rs 31300 levels. Yesterday, it closed down nearly 1 % at Rs 31140 per 10 grams.

Gold, Silver Trim Gains In Europe Hours

Gold futures trimmed the gains in the early European trading hours today after trading sharply higher in the Asian mark

et hours. Profit booking along with the firmness in the US dollar hindered the upside for yellow metal and other commodities.
European stock markets traded lower in early action on Monday, tracking losses seen overnight in Asia and last week in the U.S. where worries over rising Treasury yields spooked investors. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index dropped 0.3% to 6,483.71, while France's CAC 40 index gave up 0.7% to 4,096.90. Germany's DAX 30 index gave up 0.6% to 8,338.65.
Gold for December delivery are trading up $1 at $1,372 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It jumped 1.15% on Friday to settle the week at $1,376.30 a troy ounce. The metal may find support near $1300 levels with resistance near $1400 an ounce.
Gold prices added 4.55% last week the strongest gain since the week ending July 12. The precious metal has rebounded 16% since hitting a 34-month low of $1,180.15 a troy ounce on June 28.
September silver futures are trading above $23 an ounce in the Asia electronic session today. It rallied 1.3% on Friday to settle the week at $23.23 a troy ounce, the strongest level since May 15. Last week, it surged 11.7%, the biggest weekly advance since September 2008. Silver prices are up 24% since hitting a three-year low of $18.19 on June 28.
Minutes from the Fed’s policy meeting in late July may shed more light on the taper timing, including information on how many policy makers were ready to slow asset purchases. The minutes are due out Wednesday.
MCX October gold futures are trading down nearly Rs 50 at Rs 30795 per 10 grams. It may find support near Rs 30700 levels and Rs 30590 levels.
MCX Silver futures are trading down nearly Rs 200 at Rs 50470 per kg. It may find support near Rs 50300 and Rs 50100 levels.

MCX Gold Jumps Above Rs 26k

MCX gold staged a rebound of more than Rs 1000 per 10 grams after it fell below Rs 25000 per 10 grams last week sacked down by the signal from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke that he intends to cut back the US central bank's $85bn-a-month stimulus programme.
MCX August bullion futures jumped more than Rs 200 at Rs 26199 per 10 grams. The counter may face a resistance near Rs 26350 levels. COMEX August gold futures jumped more than $10 at $ 1266 an ounce today.
Last week, domestic gold prices hit a 23-month low of Rs 24830 per 10 grams on Friday 28 June 2013 on heavy selling triggered by a sharp plunge in global gold prices and on account of the strengthening of the Indian rupee. The rupee plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the dollar-quoted yellow metal. It hit a high of 59.21 in intraday trade today after closing at 60.19 on Thursday.
Immediately after Bernanke announced the QE plan and gold crashed many investment banks started cutting the price forecast for the precious metal dragging it further lower. The metal plunged 6.3% in a single session last week after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could start winding down its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year.
International gold prices have dropped by nearly 15% – the steepest fall in 30 years – on strength in the US dollar and on persistent worries over the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to wind down its monetary stimulus. So far in 2013 the metal is down nearly 30%, sliding since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke laid out a strategy to wind down the bank's $85 billion monthly bond purchases on the back of a recovering economy.
Fall in the domestic gold was far less than a near 14% fall in the international gold prices, the credit of which goes to the persistent fall in Indian Rupee. If the MCX gold would have fallen in pace with the COMEX gold then the metal would have slipped to below Rs 23500 levels.
Traders and investors are awaiting U.S. payrolls report for June, due on Friday, for a better indication of how gold and other assets would perform. A strong payrolls reading would likely signal more pressure on the Fed to reduce its stimulus, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, and depressing gold.
Markets are also watching the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, which is likely to emphasize that the euro zone economy is in a different stage of recovery than the United States.

Gold Up Again After A Crash

Gold futures inched up again after prices crashed by nearly $50 yesterday hitting multiyear lows on growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow the pace of economic stimulus later this year.
Gold for August is trading up $8 at $ 1238 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it fell $45.30, or 3.6%, to close at $1,229.80 an ounce the lowest close for a most-active contract since August 2010.
Gold prices so far this week have lost nearly 4.5%, and are down 11.6% in the month-to-date as the end of June trading approaches. Gold futures are on track for a decline of 23% this quarter.
The weak US GDP data also supported the sentiments for gold today as it raised the hopes that Federal Reserve will maintain its bond purchases for longer.
U.S. stocks jumped Wednesday, pulling benchmark indexes into positive terrain for the week, as a downward revision in economic growth calmed concern about U.S. monetary policy. Asian equities also jumped tracking the US equities and robust growth in China industrial profits also boosted the markets.
China’s Shanghai Composite rose 1.2% after dropping in 15 of the past 17 trading days. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 1.5%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.3%.
The advances followed a higher finish on Wall Street overnight after U.S. first-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 1.8%, from an earlier estimate of 2.4%.
Wells Fargo Advisors cut its year-end target range for gold, saying it now expects to see prices settle at $1,225 to $1,325 an ounce. It has previously expected prices to end the year at $1,475 to $1,525 an ounce. Wells Fargo also reduced its 2013 inflation target to 2% from 2.5%.
Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and HSBC downgraded their gold forecasts this week.
Gold production in China, the world's largest producer, is expected to rise about 10% this year to a record even as bullion prices slump, the nation's mining association said, according to media reports. The country recorded output of 403 tonnes last year. Production gained 12% in the first four months from a year earlier to 122.89 tonnes, according to the producer-funded China Gold Association.
MCX August gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 26300 levels with resistance near Rs 26500 levels.

MCX Silver Breaks Below Rs 40000

After trading a range bound manner for nearly 2 months, silver prices finally got the downward direction. The white metal slumped below Rs 40000 per kg today as the upbeat US data released yesterday supported the view that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of monetary stimulus this year.
MCX July silver futures tumbled to as low as Rs 39325 per kg today. The metal had fallen by nearly 10% so far this month; however the fall in prices has been curbed by the extra soft Indian Rupee. The Indian Rupee has fallen by more than 5% so far this month to low of nearly 60 per dollar. The counter should find support near Rs 39000-37000 levels in the near term.
The international silver futures have been hurt more severely due to sharp appreciation in the US dollar. COMEX July silver futures tumbled below $19 an ounce, falling nearly 17% so far in June 2013.
The dollar-denominated commodities felt the pinch from a rise in the U.S. dollar against key rivals, with the greenback looking for a sixth consecutive day of gains. The buck rose Tuesday after a report showed U.S. sales of new homes rose 2.1% in May, the fastest rate since mid-2008, and the Case-Shiller April home-price index jumped 2.5% in April, the largest monthly growth on record.47070
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week indicated the central bank may slow the pace of bond buying as early as this year if the economy continues to improve within its forecasts. The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month in U.S. Treasurys.
Later Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department is slated to release the third estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter.

Dollar Boosts Gold; Floor Trading Closed

Gold got a boost in the thin trades today helped by weakness in the US dollar and also as the central banks increase gold reserves.
Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan increased their gold reserves in April, according to data on the International Monetary Fund website on Monday. Russia bought 269,000 troy ounces--bringing its reserves to 31.8 million ounces. Kazakhstan added 85,000 ounces. Its stocks are now 4 million ounces.
The Republic of Azerbaijan bought 32,000 troy ounces last month--increasing its reserves to 129,000 ounces, the latest IMF figures showed. It was the fourth consecutive month of purchases by Azerbaijan's central bank. In December it had no reserves.
Holdings at Turkey's central bank rose 586,000 ounces in April to 13.73 million ounces. It has begun accepting gold as collateral from commercial banks and analysts said this is the main reason for recent increases rather than purchases.
Gold futures for August delivery are trading at $ 1392.3 down $5.7 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, it edged down 0.5% to settle the week at $1,387.50 a troy ounce. The metal is likely to find support near $1340 levels and resistance near $1415 levels in the near term.
Despite Friday’s modest decline, gold futures rose 2.15% on the week, the biggest weekly advance in a month, due mostly to a broadly weaker U.S. dollar.
The Japanese yen edged higher Monday, extending gains following the U.S. dollar’s worst weekly performance against its rival in about a year. The dollar bought 100.99 yen, down slightly from ¥101.09 on Friday. Last week, the dollar dropped roughly 1.7% against the yen.
In the week ahead, gold traders will be focusing on a flurry of U.S. economic data, including reports on the housing sector, consumer confidence and initial jobless claims. There will be no floor trading in New York on May 27 because of the Memorial Day holiday. All electronic transactions will be booked with May 28 trades for settlement.
MCX June gold are trading up Rs 11 at Rs 26417 per 10 grams. It may face a resistance near Rs 26470-500 levels with support near Rs 26340 levels.

Gold Continues Downward Rally

Gold futures continued its downward rally on the final day of the week, as the rally in dollar and the equity markets eat away demand for the metal.
Gold for June delivery are trading down $10 at $ 1377 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it shed $9.30, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,386.90 an ounce. Including Thursday’s loss, prices have fallen 5.9% in six straight trading sessions. They settled Thursday at their lowest since April 17.
The decline followed news of a decline in the U.S. inflation rate as well as a recent string of gains in U.S. equities that has drawn attention away from gold. U.S. consumer prices fell 0.4% in April, according to the Labor Department. The inflation rate over the past 12 months fell to 1.1% in April from 1.5% in March, marking the lowest level since November 2010.
Other data Thursday showing a jump in weekly U.S. jobless claims, a negative reading on a regional manufacturer business conditions index and a weaker dollar didn’t provide much support for the precious metal.
Jobless claims climbed to a six-week high and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of business conditions turned negative in May for the first time since February.
Meanwhile, the World Gold Council said in a report on Thursday that investors during the first quarter didn’t buy enough physical gold to offset outflows from gold-exchanged traded funds. Total world gold demand was 963 metric tons in the first quarter, down 13% from the same time a year ago, according to the report.
But the World Gold Council also said total ETF gold holdings in the first quarter were higher than the year-ago period, and demand for jewelry, bars and coins increased.
MCX June bullion futures may open today’s session near Rs 26070 levels with support around Rs 25970 and Rs 25920 levels.

Gold Dips On Profit Selling, Strong Green Back

Gold futures edged lower in range bound trade on Thursday, with investors hesitant to extend the previous session's strong gains as bearish chart signals remained intact. The Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery traded at $1,469.15 a troy ounce, down 0.3% on the day. Comex gold prices held in tight trading range between $1,467.55 a troy ounce, the daily low and a session high of $1,474.85 a troy ounce. Euro was quoting at $1.31, down 0.08% from last close. Global equities are in mixed trend with majority are marginally in red while commodities also shows same line of trend with copper and crude are down. Meanwhile, COMEX July silver quotes at $24.07, up 0.39% from last close. Gold futures rose more than 1.5% on Wednesday to hit a high of $1,475.55 a troy ounce, amid indications of surging demand for the precious metal in China, the world's second largest gold consumer. However, investors were hesitant to enter the market as the precious metal continued to trade below the key psychological $1,500-level, indicating chart signals remain bearish.
The demand for the metal from retail quarters has been soaring following a massive crash in prices during the middle of last month. Demand for gold coins and bars from India and China, the top two consumers have been highly impressive over the last few weeks. The crash in gold prices was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets, according to an update from the WGC.
Chinese gold imports are likely to swell further after more than doubling to an all-time high in March as retail consumers pounced when prices plunged to a two-year low last month. China is the world's second largest buyer after India, and in both countries the steep fall in international gold prices in April unleashed years of pent up demand for coins, bars and jewellery. That will help bolster prices for the metal, which has been abandoned by funds in other parts of the world in the wake of its historic fall. “Physical demand picked up significantly over the last couple of weeks. Consumers and industrial users tend to see price drops as buying opportunities,” Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association.
Local gold futures failed to sustain Rs 27,200 mark level for the benchmark June Gold on MCX. Weak rupee which trades at above Rs 54.24 mark, up 0.17% from last close, limited the steep fall in the prices. MCX June Gold quotes at Rs 27,120, up Rs 26 from last close. Local gold futures may find support at Rs 27,000, Rs 26,900 and resistance at Rs 27,240, Rs 27,300 level. Silver futures are trading higher following their global trends, July Silver contract trades at Rs 45,275, up Rs 361 or 0.80% from last close.

Gold Down Mildly On Profit Taking

Gold futures are trading mildly lower in the Asia electronic session today as traders booked profit after the counter surged nearly 2% yesterday. The rate cuts by two central banks also proved bullish for the metal.
The Bank of Korea and Bank of Australia slashed their rates today and yesterday respectively. The Bank of Korea on Thursday cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%. Korean stocks were higher after Thursday's rate decision, with the Kospi Composite Index up 0.3% at 1,962.05.
Also yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered rates surprising the markets. The RBA trimmed the policy cash rate by a quarter-point to 2.75%, with Gov. Glenn Stevens citing soft economic growth, tame inflation, “subdued” credit demand, and a historically high level for the Australian dollar.
“Growth in Australia was close to trend in 2012 overall, but was a bit below trend in the second half of the year, and this appears to have continued into 2013,” Stevens wrote in a statement accompanying the decision, adding that employment growth has failed to keep up with population gains.
On the data front today, China's consumer price index rose slightly more than expected in April, while wholesale prices extended their fall. The April CPI showed a gain of 2.4% from a year earlier, led by a 4% rise in food prices, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. The gain was more than March's 2.1%, though below February's spike of 3.2%.
The producer price index, meanwhile, fell by the most since October, dropping 2.6% against a decline of 1.9% in March. Chinese shares lost ground after the numbers, which would tend to reduce the odds of Beijing maintaining a loose monetary policy.
MCX June gold may open today’s session near Rs 27180 with support near Rs 27100 and Rs 26850 levels.

Turnover slows down first time in five years: FMC

 Turnover in major exchanges slowed down for the first time in last five years.

The forward Markets Commission (FMC) data for the fiscal year ending 2012-13 showed that the turnover of commodity exchanges declined by 6 per cent  to Rs 170.46 lakh crore in the last fiscal.

The main reason behind slowdown was the lower participation of Gold and Silver trades.

The turnover of commodity bourses was Rs 181.26 lakh crore in 2011-12. Heavy volatility in Gold and Silver prices affected the volumes in these commodities.

Business of Crude oil grew by 32 per cent to Rs 37.68 lakh crore in 2012-13 compared to Rs 28.51 lakh crore in 2011-12.

Turnover of Copper was Rs 32.6 lakh crore in 2012-13, up 13 per cent from Rs 28.61 lakh crore in 2011-12.

Commodity Call: Silver may retest Rs 50,500

Despite, yesterday's pull-back bears continue to hold the upper-hand on Silver.

The white metal is likely to witness some selling pressure, and could even re-test Rs 50,500-odd levels in trades today.

On the upside, Silver needs to break and sustain above Rs 51,200, in order to arrest the current bear phase.


Today Silver MCX May futures may seek support around Rs 50,750-50,700-50,630, while face resistance around Rs 51,150-51,215-51,280.

MCX Silver Micro April futures may seek support around Rs 50,765-50,700-50,630, while face resistance around Rs 51,200-51,275-51,350.

Silver, Brent Crude weak in early trade

The Comdex index has declined over 0.2 per cent at 3,670.

The MCX Energy index has dropped nearly 0.5 per cent at 3,637. The MCX Metal index has moved down 0.2 per cent at 4,778.

The MCX Agri index is marginally up at 2,259.

Cardamom April futures has advanced 0.4 per cent at Rs 902.

Mentha Oil May futures has gained 0.2 per cent at Rs 998.

CPO and Aluminium May futures are almost flat at Rs 462 and Rs 103, respectively.

On the other hand, Silver 1000 May futures has tumbled over 1.7 per cent at Rs 51,0001.

Brent Crude Oil May futures has dropped over 1.2 per cent at Rs 5,934.

Gold Petals Delhi April futures has shed nearly a per cent at Rs 2,890.

Commodity Jackpot Call: No respite for Silver

Silver continues to trade with a fairly negative bias as the white metal is trading below the lower-end of the Bolling Band for the fifth straight day.

The bears are likely to have the upper-hand as long as MCX Silver May futures trade below Rs 51,700.

Click Here for the live Silver MCX prices.

However, select key momentum oscillators like the MACD and 14-day RSI have entered heavily oversold territory.

Hence, a sharp pull-back from intra-day support levels cannot be ruled out.

Today Silver MCX May futures may seek support around Rs 50,330-50,210-50,085, while face resistance around Rs 51,115-51,235-51,350.

MCX Silver Micro April futures may seek support around Rs 50,345-50,225-50,100, while face resistance around Rs 51,140-51,265-51,390.