Thursday, 18 April 2013

Gold Tops $1400, Gains In Dollar Could Trim Upside

MCX Gold futures witnessed a recovery from intraday lows yet again as retail buyers poured in the major cities in India, particularly in Mumbai. Asian and European markets eked out small gains and COMEX Gold was also seen adding to its bounce from two and half year lows. The metal managed to test highs above $1400 per ounce and currently trades at $1388.80, up $6.10 per ounce on the day.

Extraordinarily loose monetary policy risks sparking credit bubbles, which threaten to tip the world back into financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday. In its global financial stability report, the fund cautioned that further policy reforms were needed urgently to restore long-term health to the financial system before the long-term dangers of monetary stimulus materialised.

The IMF noted that the global financial crisis could morph into a more chronic phase, marked by a deterioration of financial conditions and recurring bouts of financial instability. In the short term, however, the fund is more upbeat. José Vinals, IMF head of financial stability, noted that spring has arrived to global financial markets where after very rainy days and threatening clouds, we are beginning to see some blue skies and more sunny days.

Meanwhile, US data showed that the business among manufacturers in the Philadelphia region softened slightly in April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said Thursday. The bank's business-conditions index edged down to 1.3 from 2.0 in March, though any reading above zero indicates that manufacturers are still expanding. The Fed reported that the index for new orders fell to negative 1.0 in April from 0.5 in March.

The US dollar is quoting just above 1.3000 levels against the Euro, holding onto its latest gains and could trim intraday gains for the yellow metal. MCX Gold futures fell near its recent low yet again buy swing back. Prices are quoting at Rs 25616, down Rs 63 per 10 grams or 0.25% on the day or with 3.54% increase in the open interest. Spot rates in Mumbai are around Rs 26300, excluding VAT and local taxes and with not much of a fall emerging over last two days, cash buying is picking up.

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Gold Recovers Near $1400 After Blood Bath

MCX Gold futures are up around 1.50% on the day after a freakish slide ended in global markets and some buying finally emerged. The COMEX Gold prices recovered from a two and half year low of $1321.50 per ounce in Asian trades. Equities were mixed throughout the day today on the back of a torrid collapse in US stocks. Traders seemed to have gotten adjusted to the frantic moves in last few sessions and Gold was seen picking up strength in response to its traditional friend - a weak US dollar. COMEX Gold is up nearly $80 per ounce in intraday moves and quotes at $1394.90, up $35.20 per ounce on the day.

In a key development in global markets, the leading global futures exchange- CME said it will raise the collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday. The exchange also said it also will increase margins to trade its benchmark natural-gas futures, also effective Tuesday. Margins to trade benchmark Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, CME said in a notice emailed late Monday. The margin to trade silver will increase 18%.

Gold was hammered heavily for a second session yesterday as a massive sell off was triggered once the metal broke under $1500 per ounce levels. The counter lost nearly $140 per ounce on the day- its biggest slide in nearly three decades. US stocks also dropped like a rock after Chinese economic data came in weaker than expected. The country's GDP for the January-March quarter rose 7.7% from a year earlier, weakening from 7.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Industrial production for March increased 8.9% from the year-earlier period, the weakest in more than a year and slowing from a 9.9% average rise for the January-February period.

Locally, panic struck the retail markets when the prices fell under Rs 26000 per 10 grams- its lowest level in nearly two years. Macro data also showed that India's headline inflation slowed to the lowest rate in more than three years in March, spurring expectations that the Reserve Banks of India will cut policy interest rates next month to help the economy recover from its slowest growth in a decade. Wholesale prices, country's key inflation measure, eased to 5.96% in March aft, the lowest rate since November 2011.

The media reports revealed yesterday that India's gold imports have fallen nearly 24 percent in the first quarter of the current year. It will be interesting to see if the local gold traders and bullion merchants buy the commodity in bulk after the recent meltdown. MCX Gold is up today after falling as low as Rs 25270 per 10 grams. This marked a drop of around Rs 5000 over last one month. Some buying picked up thereafter and the metal is now quoting at Rs 25999, up Rs 365 per 10 grams or 1.42% with 1.21% increase. Some minute buying is emerging in the counter.

Monday, 15 April 2013

Gold Bear Run Starts

Stretching into the third session of losses, the yellow metal seems to end its 12 year long bull run with the panic selling taking it down by as much as $179 an ounce in late trade on Monday to a fresh 27-month low.
Today, as well it opened down, trading at $ 1347 per ounce on the COMEX division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price is down more than 18.7% this year and Friday's sharp decline dragged the metal it into official bear territory, defined as a 20% decline from a high.
U.S. stock indexes fell the most in five months Monday, swept up in a rush out of gold, oil and other commodities, after reports from China showed the industrial giant's growth had cooled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended near its lows of the day, down 265.86 points, or 1.8%, to 14,599.20. The S&P 500 index sank 36.49 points, or 2.3%, to 1,552.36. The Nasdaq Composite fell 78.46 points, or 2.4%, to 3,216.49.
Soured sentiment built as the session wore on, exacerbated by a drop in a gauge of U.S. home builders' confidence. Some strategists said the pullback was expected after stock indexes notched records last week.
CME Group Inc. said it will raise the collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday.
Margins to trade benchmark Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, CME said in a notice emailed late Monday. The margin to trade silver will increase 18%, palladium will increase 14% and platinum will increase 19%. Natural-gas futures will increase 5.6%
Futures exchanges like CME keep tabs on market volatility as they determine how much collateral, or margin, traders must deposit to back up trades. When markets like gold begin to rapidly swing, exchanges may decide that customers need a bigger cushion to cover changes to their positions.
Gold hit a record $1,909 an ounce intra-day on 23 August 2011, but a the next day suffered one of few triple digit one-day losses when it plummeted $105, ending the week down more than 10% from the all-time high.
For 10 years the price of gold shot up, aided especially by the stock market meltdown of 2009. After hitting its high in August 2011, gold saw a gradual decline as the stock market rose into record territory. Then it plummeted 25% last week, indicating growing global economic weaknesses.
MCX June gold futures may open today's session near Rs 25400 levels with support around Rs 25100 levels.

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Gold Flat As Fed Minutes Loom

Gold futures are trading flat in the Asia electronic session today as the Fed meeting minutes of March 20 meeting loom.

Gold for June delivery are trading flat at $ 1586.7 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it gained $14.20, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,586.70 an ounce.

It erased Monday’s 0.2% loss and prices marked their highest settlement since the first day of the month, when they closed above $1,600.

The dollar also slipped against the Australian dollar on Tuesday after Chinese consumer inflation data for March came in below expectations. The Aussie is sensitive to Chinese economic indicators as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

On the data front today, China swung to a trade deficit of $880 million in March, the General Administration of Customs reported Wednesday, as imports surged 14.1% from a year earlier. The deficit followed February's $15.2 billion surplus. The gain in imports fell more than 15% in February. Exports rose 10% from March 2012.

For the week ahead, gold investors will be looking for minutes due Wednesday from the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting on March 20, at which monetary policy makers decided to continue with its program of buying $85 billion a month in assets.

MCX June gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 29600 levels with resistance near Rs 29650 and support near Rs 29550-500 levels.

Monday, 8 April 2013

Gold Up Marginally On Japan Easing

Gold futures are trading marginally higher in the Asia electronic session getting support from the recent monetary easing in Japan which took Yen to 4 year lows.

Japan’s currency fell Tuesday, struggling at four-year lows against the U.S. dollar as it extended its dive in the wake of fresh Japanese monetary stimulus. The U.S. dollar bought 99.40 yen in Asian trade, compared with ¥99.21 in North American trade late Monday.

As the greenback toyed with the ¥100 level, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso hinted Tuesday that policy makers are unlikely to seek to slow the pace of the yen’s decline. Aso said the yen was correcting after a period of excessive strength.

The central bank last week said it would increase the amount of its longer-term holdings of Japanese government bonds from ¥89 trillion ($900 billion) at the end of December to ¥190 trillion in two years’ time. The euro also rose against the yen Tuesday, fetching ¥129.73, up from Monday’s level of ¥129.01 and nearing its own psychologically important handle of ¥130.

Gold for June delivery are trading up $2.2 at $ 1574.7 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it fell $3.40, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,572.50 an ounce.

Gold futures fell on Monday, marking their fourth loss in five trading sessions, as a stronger dollar and continued outflows from exchange-traded funds helped fuel a pull back in the wake of a strong rally late last week.

Gold finished Friday’s session up $23.50, or 1.5%, at $1,575.90 an ounce after the U.S. Labor Department said the economy created 88,000 new jobs in March.

MCX June gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 29530 levels with resistance near Rs 29600-700 levels.

Mumbai, Chennai, gold, silver price

In Mumbai on Monday (08 April 2013), the standard gold was traded at Rs 29,400 for 10 gm and pure gold at Rs 29,550 for 10 gm. Silver spot was traded at Rs 52,500 for 1 kg.

In Chennai, bar silver was traded at Rs 51,535 for 1 kg and retail silver at Rs 55.10 per gm. The standard gold was traded at Rs 29,510 for 10 gm, while the retail ornament gold was traded at Rs 2,759 per gm.

Turnover slows down first time in five years: FMC

 Turnover in major exchanges slowed down for the first time in last five years.

The forward Markets Commission (FMC) data for the fiscal year ending 2012-13 showed that the turnover of commodity exchanges declined by 6 per cent  to Rs 170.46 lakh crore in the last fiscal.

The main reason behind slowdown was the lower participation of Gold and Silver trades.

The turnover of commodity bourses was Rs 181.26 lakh crore in 2011-12. Heavy volatility in Gold and Silver prices affected the volumes in these commodities.

Business of Crude oil grew by 32 per cent to Rs 37.68 lakh crore in 2012-13 compared to Rs 28.51 lakh crore in 2011-12.

Turnover of Copper was Rs 32.6 lakh crore in 2012-13, up 13 per cent from Rs 28.61 lakh crore in 2011-12.

Sunday, 7 April 2013

MCX Gold Witnesses Modest Correction After Latest Gains

MCX Gold futures slipped slightly in the early moves, giving up after a massive rally in the Friday's session. Gold futures got a boost on the disappointing jobs data, which put to rest recent sentiments that the Federal Reserve may consider tightening policy in the coming months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier the economy added 88,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, way below expectations for a gain of 200,000 and below the 268,000 jobs added in February. The metal edged up at a ferocious pace following this, adding nearly 30 dollars in intraday moves. The counter currently quotes at $1576.90, up $1 per ounce on the day.

The US non farm data revealed that the private sector added 95,000 jobs last month, after an increase of 254,000 in February, missing expectations for a 209,000 rise. The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% in March, from 7.7% the previous month, as more Americans left the labor force. The news sent the dollar falling and gold rising on expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep monetary stimulus programs in place, including its USD85 billion monthly bond-buying program that weakens the greenback as a side effect.

The June COMEX gold futures had tumbled to 10 month low of $1539.4 earlier this week, however it jumped back to end the fortnight at $1575.9 an ounce. It rallied to a one-month peak in March on worries about fiscal stability in Europe, as politicians scrambled to clinch a bail-out for Cyprus. Fear that central banks' money-printing to buy assets will stoke inflation has been a key driver in boosting gold, which rallied to an 11-month high in October after the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus.

The international gold prices are down nearly $80 from its last year's level as the US dollar has appreciated. The June COMEX gold futures are trading at $ 1575.9 an ounce as on 5th April 2013 whereas last year the metal has been trading near $1650 an ounce levels. The US dollar has gained nearly 2% in April 2013 compared to the same period last year.

There could be some upside resistance for the yellow metal after the massive array of gains seen on Friday. The US dollar is quoting just under 1.3000 levels against the Euro, coming off its two-week low levels. MCX Gold futures slipped as the Rs 29800 barrier yet again triggered a correction. The counter quotes at Rs 29707, down Rs 60 per 10 grams on the day with 1% drop in the open interest.

Friday, 5 April 2013

Commodity Jackpot Call: Key levels for Gold on Apr 5

MCX April Gold futures rebounded sharply after hitting oversold territory on Wednesday.

As per the charts, Gold needs to sustain above Rs 28,970-levels for maintaining yesterday's strength.

In case, MCX Gold April futures slip below Rs 28,970, and the next key support is at Rs 28,880.

On the upside, April futures may look to bounce to Rs 29,170-odd levels.

The key levels for MCX Gold June Futures today are - support around Rs 29,290-29,255-29,215; resistance around Rs 29,520-29,555-29,590.

Similarly, GoldM May futures may seek support around Rs 29,070-29,035-29,005, while face resistance around Rs 29,270-29,300-29,335.

Thursday, 4 April 2013

Commodity Call: Silver may retest Rs 50,500

Despite, yesterday's pull-back bears continue to hold the upper-hand on Silver.

The white metal is likely to witness some selling pressure, and could even re-test Rs 50,500-odd levels in trades today.

On the upside, Silver needs to break and sustain above Rs 51,200, in order to arrest the current bear phase.

Today Silver MCX May futures may seek support around Rs 50,750-50,700-50,630, while face resistance around Rs 51,150-51,215-51,280.

MCX Silver Micro April futures may seek support around Rs 50,765-50,700-50,630, while face resistance around Rs 51,200-51,275-51,350.

Gold Slippery Ahead Of Payrolls

Gold stayed on a slippery note ahead of the widely watched U.S. unemployment report for March. The strength in the US dollar also weighed on the sentiments.
Investors look to nonfarm payroll figures for any hints as to when the Federal Reserve will taper down its asset purchases. The traders await the U.S. Labor Department’s unemployment report for March, due later Friday. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims rose to a four-month high, raising concerns that already-sluggish levels of hiring in the U.S. may be slowing.
In February, US non-farm payrolls rose by 236,000; the market is going for another increase, albeit a smaller one of 190,000, for March. That consensus view may ease lower, however, after Wednesday's employment report from payrolls processing firm ADP indicated only 158,000 workers were added to private sector payrolls in March.
That increase was the smallest since October of last year and was way below the 190,000 to 200,000 economists had been forecast. Having said that, the ADP report is, at best, an often unreliable harbinger of trends in the official US non-farm payrolls data. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.7%.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.2% at 82.862 during Asian trading Friday. The dollar also extended its climb against the Japanese yen, which tumbled in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing plan announced Thursday.
Gold for June delivery is trading down $2 at $ 1550 an ounce levels during Asian morning trading hours on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it fell $2, or 0.1%, to $1,550.40 an ounce.
Prices settled Thursday’s session down $1.10 at $1,552.40 an ounce, but they managed to pare losses during the final minutes of trading, as the U.S. dollar lost more ground against the euro. Gold on Thursday marked its third consecutive decline and was on track for a loss of nearly 3% for the week.
MCX June gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 29340 levels with support near Rs 29300-250 levels and resistance near Rs 29400 levels.

Silver, Brent Crude weak in early trade

The Comdex index has declined over 0.2 per cent at 3,670.

The MCX Energy index has dropped nearly 0.5 per cent at 3,637. The MCX Metal index has moved down 0.2 per cent at 4,778.

The MCX Agri index is marginally up at 2,259.

Cardamom April futures has advanced 0.4 per cent at Rs 902.

Mentha Oil May futures has gained 0.2 per cent at Rs 998.

CPO and Aluminium May futures are almost flat at Rs 462 and Rs 103, respectively.

On the other hand, Silver 1000 May futures has tumbled over 1.7 per cent at Rs 51,0001.

Brent Crude Oil May futures has dropped over 1.2 per cent at Rs 5,934.

Gold Petals Delhi April futures has shed nearly a per cent at Rs 2,890.

Commodity Jackpot Call: No respite for Silver

Silver continues to trade with a fairly negative bias as the white metal is trading below the lower-end of the Bolling Band for the fifth straight day.

The bears are likely to have the upper-hand as long as MCX Silver May futures trade below Rs 51,700.

Click Here for the live Silver MCX prices.

However, select key momentum oscillators like the MACD and 14-day RSI have entered heavily oversold territory.

Hence, a sharp pull-back from intra-day support levels cannot be ruled out.

Today Silver MCX May futures may seek support around Rs 50,330-50,210-50,085, while face resistance around Rs 51,115-51,235-51,350.

MCX Silver Micro April futures may seek support around Rs 50,345-50,225-50,100, while face resistance around Rs 51,140-51,265-51,390.

Gold Cuts Losses On Japan Easing

Gold futures cut the losses made earlier in the session as soon as the news came that the Bank of Japan decided to launch an aggressive easing program. Monetary easing boosts inflation which is in turn is positive for gold.

With Japan's interest rates pushed near zero, purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and other assets have been the main way the central bank has sought to help stimulate the economy and end the chronic price falls that have undercut growth.

Among the key measures agreed upon at Kuroda's inaugural policy-board meeting was an expansion of its government bond purchases, including buying longer-term debt. The meeting was one of the most closely watched in the post-war history of the central bank after Kuroda promised “bold” actions to create a 2% inflation rate.

Markets reacted sharply to the move, with the dollar rising to 94.46 yen from ¥92.90 just ahead of the decision, while the Nikkei Average swung from heavy losses to a close with a 2.2% gain.

The central bank said it would buy JGBs so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about ¥50 trillion ($530 billion). Kuroda planned to explain the latest steps at a post-policy-meeting news conference later in the day.

Monetary easing is one piece of the “three arrow” strategy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to end Japan's two lost decades after the financial bubble burst in the early 1990s. Kuroda has vowed to do “whatever it takes” to meet the 2% inflation goal, which is part of a pact signed between the government and the Bank of Japan in January.

Gold for June delivery is trading down just $1.2 at $ 1552.3 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The counter may now test resistance near $1580 - 1600 levels today. Yesterday it fell $22.40, or 1.4%, to settle at $1,553.50 an ounce. That was the lowest settlement for a most-active contract since June 28.

MCX April bullion also pared losses and jumped to as high as Rs 29300 levels. The counter should face a stiff resistance near Rs 29340 levels today.

Wednesday, 3 April 2013

Gold Trade To Three And Half Week Lows

MCX Gold futures extended their losses as the COMEX futures tested their three and half month lows. The metal was dominated by the settlement related trading activity and gains in overnight US markets also hurt the appeal of the commodity. The metal has dropped by around 35 dollars in last two sessions now. The COMEX Gold failed to hold on to its one month high above $1600 per ounce in the last week and a firm undertone in the US dollar is not helping the metal much either. The counter quotes at $1570.10, down $5.80 per ounce on the day. Prices corrected nearly 25 dollars in the last session.

US stocks jumped to all time highs yesterday and traders sold off gold rapidally in the awe of the near month futures settlement. Meanwhile, the US dollar consolidated just above 1.2800 levels against the Euro. Eurostat said that the euro zone's unemployment rate held steady at a seasonally adjusted 12 percentage in February, unchanged from January but still at record highs. Eurozone showed a marginal improvement in PMI numbers at 46.8 in March compared to 46.8 in February. The numbers are still below 50 mark that is treated as the borderline above which it is treated as growth. Further on the negative front, the PMI data indicated an overall deterioration in German manufacturing business conditions, largely reflecting a renewed decline in new orders and stagnation in production volumes.

North Korea said yesterday that it intended to restart a nuclear reactor closed in 2007 and hinted it may begin openly enriching weapons-grade uranium at a time of soaring military tensions. A nuclear energy spokesman said the move would involve readjusting and restarting all the facilities at the North's main Yongbyon nuclear complex, including a uranium enrichment plant and a five megawatt reactor.

MCX Gold futures for June, the recently turned benchmark contract slipped under Rs 30000 per 10 grams level yesterday and dropped nearly Rs 400 amid a heavy sell off in global markets. The counter extended this drop and tanked to Rs 29357 per 10 grams today. The commodity is quoting at Rs 29507, down Rs 98 per 10 grams or 0.33% on the day with 1% increase in open interest. A modest bounce emerged in the afternoon trades as Indian Rupee gave up following heavy losses for local equities.