Wednesday, 19 November 2014

Mild Gains Emerge In Crude Oil

The global crude oil prices edged up from their lows amid continued signs of bargainbuying. Equities are holding steady ahead of the release of the minutes of last US FOMCmeeting and the US dollar is mildly weak. Oil has eased this week after a bounce on lastFriday as traders feel that the OPEC oil cartel will leave output unchanged at an upcomingmeeting despite months of steady losses due to ongoing supply concerns. However, today’sbounce makes it look like the prices have formed a short term bottom. The WTI Crude oil isquoting at $74.78 per barrel, up 17 cents per barrel on the day. MCX Crude oil is quotingat Rs 4623 per barrel, up Rs 16 per barrel on the day.
Crude oil prices dropped yesterday as US industry stocks data painted a bearish pictureahead of more closely watched government data. Data from the industry group, the AmericanPetroleum Institute released late Tuesday, showed that crude supplies rose by 3.7 millionbarrels last week, while gasoline inventories rose by 519,000 barrels and distillatestocks fell by 3.3 million barrels.
A measure of German economic confidence edged higher for the first time in last oneyear, indicating that the country's economy may be starting to turn around after months ofconcerns about Europe's largest economy, noted the ZEW institute yesterday. The ZEW leadexpectations indicator was 11.5 in November, after -3.6 in October. It was the firstincrease in the index since December of last year. It strongly beat economists'expectations of a rise to 0.9 in a Dow Jones survey of analysts. The US Dollar eased a bitfollowing this and currently quotes at 1.2530 against the Euro.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its monthly short-term energyoutlook released yesterday cut its forecast for benchmark US crude-oil prices to anaverage of $95 a barrel this year and $77.75 a barrel next year, below its previousforecasts of $97.72 a barrel this year and $94.58 a barrel next year. For Brent, theglobal benchmark, the EIA expects prices to average $101.04 a barrel in 2014 and $83.42 abarrel in 2015. In October, the agency called for price averages of $104.42 a barrel thisyear and $101.67 a barrel next year.
The EIA raised its forecast for total US crude production this year to 8.57 millionbarrels a day, up from its prior forecast of 8.54 million barrels a day. For 2015, theagency lowered its production forecast from 9.50 million barrels a day to 9.42 millionbarrels a day. The forecast 2015 production would represent the highest level of annualaverage oil production since 1972, the EIA said.
In its latest annual world outlook, the OPEC predicted less demand for its oil through2017. OPEC said demand for its crude oil would fall to 28.2 million barrels a day by theend of 2017, as output from producers outside the cartel, such as the U.S. and Canada,Latin American countries, and Russia, continue to rise. Demand for OPEC crude will pick upagain in 2018, but a year later it will still be lower than demand for 2013, OPEC said.

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